Oil: the Saudis are not allowed to fall in prices

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He had only a little bit of oil to rebound from the lows of last week on the words of the oil Minister of Saudi Arabia Khalid al-falikha about the expansion of the coalition at the expense of OPEC countries that are not permanent members of the cartel (primarily Russia), which will now take on obligations under the mining quotas depending on the current exchange rate of the exchange price of “black gold”, and Russian ruble again began to be invigorated.
Mark 64,70, near which fluctuate Brent quotes as of 13:30 GMT, already significantly below the level of the watershed 65 to talk about the return of the domestic currency in the range of 64-65 to the dollar, but cautious in the dynamics of the currency pairs and the extreme degree of dependence on external (and internal, as soon as we reached the finish line before the meeting of the Bank of Russia this Friday) background, hinting at continued long neutral history (perhaps to be continued). In tandem with the Euro, the Russian trading about 73,20, and in this case, the picture is even less clear, because the Europeans rose against the dollar as of 6 June by 0.8%.
Additional optimism to investors today give unceasing supplications on occasion, as many think, the inevitable easing of the rhetoric of the fed at the upcoming meeting of the Federal open market Committee on June 19. In addition, in handy, early this morning came out strong macro economic data for China, according to which the export from China in may rose 1.1% versus consensus expectations of Western analysts -3,8% and the previous value, which is 2.7% (downward cycle now visually does not add up, despite the horrors of the trade war; what will happen – God knows, although analysts and their forecasts).
Import substantially decreased, which is not surprising since the people’s Bank of China quite rapidly reduces the rate of the yuan, and the counter-sanctions “not asleep”. By the end of may, this figure fell 8.5% after the 4% growth in April and a consensus forecast decline of 3.8%. All of this has helped China to expand its foreign trade surplus of $13.8 billion in April to more than $40 billion in may. If you believe these numbers, many Chinese “horror stories,” including a General “concern” about the status of the Chinese private banks, in theory, should move (at least in the moment) by the wayside.
At the end of this week, the CBR expects the vast majority of Russian analysts (and in this sense we are not an exception) will resume a progressive decline in key interest rates should help businesses to alleviate the burdens of economic stagnation, and citizens to reduce the burden of excessively grown from 2017 debt load. We expect in fact indirectly preteensyoung Elvira Nabiullina at the SPIEF to reduce the key rate by a quarter percentage point to 7.5%.
The official inflation rate in may cyclically slowed down rapidly after the expected last spring, rashlebyvay the consequences of increasing the tax burden beginning of the year, and only the instability of the external background is sowing doubts and reserves with the Central Bank “explanatory” for “unauthorized” market to maintain the key rates steady.
Speaking about the past in St. Petersburg economic the forum, even despite its minimal impact even on the Russian market – not to mention international still remember a number of iconic stories, and it’s not even from the category of a fairly widely publicized public debate of some well-known Russian government officials among themselves.
We are talking about agreements signed with China. We would highlight the framework agreement on cooperation with Huawei to develop 5G networks in Russia. Legendary Chinese corporations require broad geographic coverage and long distances between adjacent sections of a single network to break in on the correct “range” is new.
Vladimir Rojankovski,
The expert “International financial centre”