Oil: risks of falling of the rate continue to prevail

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In the first half trading environment Brent oil futures traded with a negative attitude, trying to around 75. However, in the area of 75.25 asset found support, rebounding from which subsequently rebounded in the region 76,85. The bulls did not dare to test level 77, frightened by the proximity of the 20-day moving average, but the short-term technical forecast has improved a bit after yesterday’s dynamics.
The reason for the resumption of purchases of “black gold” gave a good report of the energy Ministry, if not to take into account the production figures, which grew by 0.9%, closely approaching the level of 11 million barrels per day. Crude oil inventories last week fell by 4.1 million barrels, stocks of distillates and gasoline fell 2.1 million and 2.3 million barrels, respectively.
However, ahead of the crucial OPEC summit the participants of the market do not focus on the us data now traders are more concerned with the question of the potential production capacity of the countries-participants of the transaction. Yesterday, there was talk that Russia plans to propose to his colleagues to gradually return to the production levels recorded prior to the entry of the agreement into force. A number of exporters with the big share of probability will support this initiative, including Saudi Arabia. But there are also those who are against it due to fears of a price collapse.
In General, with each passing day the fog on the upcoming meeting, only the dark, and nervousness in the energy market increases. In such circumstances, it is not excluded to some sharp price fluctuations in both directions, although downside risks still prevail, despite the recent local rebound.
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Michael Mashchenko,
Analyst social network for investors
eToro in Russia and the CIS