Oil prices will support the ruble if Saudi Arabia is not limited to statements

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Today in the morning we contemplate the surprisingly positive news flow regarding the potential improvement of the political image of Russia, and also – suddenly boweavil a wind of change in the oil market, which since the beginning of the month inevitably fell under its own weight to increasing evidence of the oversupply. These fears were compounded by the threat of full-fledged diplomatic conflict between Washington and Riyadh due to the concealment of the last circumstances of the murder of opposition journalist Jamal Casucci.
The situation was escalating daily, that spoiled the mood of the traders. The weekend held an abbreviated meeting of OPEC, which showed the discontent of Saudi Arabia the situation of increasing sales in the “black gold” and its willingness to reduce quota.
Those who closely follow the economy “liquid” assets, was confused in the data: the number of authoritative sources and their stated intervals of time, during which the surplus supply accumulated is approximately equal to the number of other sources and reported their duration has already formed then its deficit. Sometimes one gets the feeling that the market is just a bundle of contradictions and the objective now is no more. To trade oil will have only a “technique”.
Actually, as usual, the devil is in the details. The Minister of energy of Saudi Arabia Khalid al-falih early this morning announced that “OPEC and its allies agree with the assertion that for the next balancing market there is a need to reduce the world’s oil supply next year by about 1 million barrels a day against the level of October,” Speaking at an industry event in Abu Dhabi, he said that demand from buyers from Saudi Arabia in December will fall by more than half a million barrels a day in monthly terms.
Falih also said that, despite the proliferating rumors that Saudi Arabia is preparing for the dissolution of OPEC and, moreover, considers that the oil cartel for a long time will remain a global “Central Bank” of oil. But here arises another question: how will count towards the quota of Iran and Libya (the first is still not determined the status of the sanctions due to “exceptions of exceptions” for some countries, and in the second case, continuing after the death of Muammar Gaddafi creeping civil war makes it impossible not only to predict exports, but even to maintain accurate current statistics).
Anyway, as of 14:30 the ruble, already on the news a little stronger in the morning after a relentless sales that cross rates are lowered it over the weekend to 68,15 per dollar, and is barely noticeable to entrenched 67,40, still under the yoke of its structural weaknesses again weaken, having made to date, half of its translational motion that trading day and zafiksirovany at the level 67,72.
Yet, based on current patterns, preference can be given to many “bears”, who see the weakening of the domestic currency is worse than the level 70 to the end of the year.
Vladimir Rojankovski,
“International Financial Center”