Oil prices will put pressure on growth prospects of the ruble

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The ruble suffered moderate losses in trading on Thursday, not after seeing pretexts for strengthening. The trading range is still limited, supports the struggle of opposing forces. The dollar has risen 0.3% to 61,40, the Euro has gained nearly 0.5%, reflecting the situation on the Forex market.
In the oil market are amplified corrective signals. As you get closer to the June summit of OPEC exporters begin to prepare the market for a possible easing of restrictions on production and that concerns the bulls. Since this scenario is not factored into prices more trades in that direction will push the quotations down.
This is one of the risk factors for our currency, which also remains under the influence of geopolitics. No sooner had the assets of the emerging segment to spread its wings, as the White house came a new blow – trump has decided to cancel the meeting with the DPRK leader, who later expressed hope that the summit will still take place. The aggravation of the topic of trade protectionism, the United States and relations with Korea is not in favor of risky assets in General and emerging market currencies in particular. And in case of further deterioration of the atmosphere on that front the pressure on the ruble will intensify.
Meanwhile the dollar moved to the restoration in the international arena, confirming the integrity of the bullish trend. Given all these factors, the peak of tax payments will be insufficient to counter their influence on the Russian currency, and therefore, in a pair dollar/ruble is still dominated by upside risks. If the total background in the next few days does not improve, the dollar could easily test the range 61,70 RUB and return to the mark 62 RUB
Igor Kovalyov,
InstaForex companies group