Oil price will rise to$80 if the United States and China agree
The decline in oil prices in the Asian session, the first thing to correlate with an unexpected rise in US inventories. According to the American petroleum Institute, crude oil stocks increased by 8.6 million barrels, while it was expected that the figure will be in the area of 2.1 million barrels. These figures suggest the manipulation of the United States, which allow to actively influence the pricing of oil prices.
However, major market participants have focused on sanctions against Iran and Venezuela as well as in the course of a trade war. A new wave of confrontation between the U.S. and China creates real concerns for the global oil market – energy demand is greatly reduced, and this will subsequently have a long-term negative impact on the oil market.
In the global market it is quite possible oil shortage. The recent attack on the tankers in Saudi Arabia had a positive impact on quotations, but not for long. Now the event is already priced in by the market, and attention switched to a more long-term factors of influence.
If the United States and China agree, then the price of oil could rise to $80 per barrel in a few hours. On the one hand, such a scenario is trump not like it, but America needs to prepare for it. Rather, continue to leverage in the form of sanctions against Iran and the manipulation of figures on stocks of raw materials in the country will also be effective. On the other hand, duties on $300 billion can cause serious damage to the economy of China, and he will have to again devalue the yuan, which is already at historic lows.
OPEC+ will have to take action at a meeting in Vienna, scheduled next month. Should be possible to stabilize the oil market and keep prices acceptable for both exporters and importers. Now focus on the level of $70-75 per barrel.
“International financial center”