Oil price offset the political pressure on the ruble
After multidirectional fluctuations of the ruble finished the week unchanged. High oil prices offset pressure from the foreign front, holding the “Russians” from massive drawdown.
At the beginning of the new trading five-day week the Russian currency is moderately receding. However, these movements are not significant, and as you return to the market of foreign players bidding will become more pronounced and explicit in nature.
The flight from risk has receded, but can resume at any time because visible signs of the trade conflict between the US and China on the level of peace negotiations is not observed. Last weekend, China has imposed retaliatory measures in the form of fees to 25% on some products imported from America. So on that front there may be a new the escalation, which will affect the entire segment risk assets, including the ruble. This is perhaps one of the major risk factors for our currency at the moment, unless you count the threat of economic sanctions from the West because of the case Skripal.
The dollar, too, can present a nasty surprise to the ruble, if you go on the offensive, with the support of economic data. In the U.S. today will be published indicators of business activity in production, but Friday will bring a key report on employment. It is predicted that in March the growth rate of wages accelerated. And on optimistic expectations, the U.S. currency may well attract the attention of buyers.
In these circumstances, the ruble is to rely on the oil that remains in a high position, trying to continue the climb and return to long-term peaks, and, perhaps, challenge them. While in the raw materials segment remains the fighting spirit, the influence of the aforementioned factors on the ruble will be limited, of course, provided that no large-scale shocks in the foreign policy and the near future will not happen.
Head of analytical Department,
“International financial center”