Oil price may begin to fall if investors continue to close positions

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Another acute phase “rehearsal” trade wars behind us, and investors are trying to start a new week with a “clean slate” as possible. The fear and anxiety remain, but at least the hype around shopping defensive assets diminished – the markets began to hope for the easing of America’s position, which promised to liberate South Korea from duties and can move on to softer dialogue with China. But vigilance is not worth losing the confrontation may escalate with renewed force at any time.
In terms of relieving pressure on the leading stock markets of the world today have the chance to see the strengthening of the Russian indexes at the end of trading Friday stabilized near opening levels. However, much will depend on oil, which in the morning are trading quite volatile, which introduces some uncertainty.
The current downward correction in Brent after a morning breakthrough above 70 may be followed, if the players get the hang of it, making a profit. The pretext for such dynamics can serve as Friday’s report BakerHughes, which reflected the increase in the number of active drilling rigs in the USA 4 units up to 800 units, which portends further expansion of shale production in the country.
In the pair dollar/ruble, meanwhile, is likely to continue to struggle for 57 RUB With one hand, in favor of the Russian currency, say the peak of the tax period, high oil prices and a weak dollar. With another – there is the risk of bearish pullback in the commodity segment, and the stabilization of the us currency indicates the possibility of its recovery in the short term.
Given the continuing fears of confrontation between Russia and the West, speculators are unlikely to show a keen interest in buying Russian assets, including the ruble. This means that the risks in the pair dollar/ruble at the moment are more of a positive character.
Sergey Kostenko,
Investment analyst