Oil price closely approaching $ 80 per barrel
Oil is approaching local highs and, it seems, buyers do have a chance to “drive” a barrel of Brent above $ 80. Despite the fact that the vast majority of catalysts promoting activity “bulls” speculative and short-term, the market continues to move “by inertia” up.
In favor of the buyers plays a stream of news from the Middle East. They are not new, but their strength is still noticeable. First, it is the Iranian factor. Let me remind you that within 2 months the world oil market may be deprived of supplies from Iran due to US sanctions. Here are the options with individual contracts – for example, China and India, who are currently looking for ways to bypass the sanctions restrictions. But the overall picture is predicted that the flow of oil from Iran runs out. There are Libyan catalyst: providers are constantly faced with interruptions due to the difficult political situation in the country, and change for the better is not yet expected.
The second point is directly linked to the first: if Iran and Libya do not allow the oil market as much energy as claimed, it will sooner or later produce a certain “vacuum supply”. To block it would be difficult even given the fact that OPEC+ oil pump now, almost without limits.
The local factor supporting oil is associated with the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico. Last year, the element markedly affect the oil production in the region and following the structure of the reserves of “black gold” in the United States. While predictions regarding the passage of hurricanes on the Florida coast is contradictory.
Limiting commodity “bulls” factor is the trade confrontation between the US and China. The resolution of this conflict of interests will not in the next 9-12 months, and this directly affects the demand for oil.
On the 1 hour timeframe Brent is developing upside momentum in the long-term up-trend. Apparently, the current pulse is directed into a primary high – 80,52. After reaching this level we can expect the beginning of reduction, but within the correction of ascending dynamics. The first major aim of the rollback will be the support line of the current channel – the level of 79.00. Correctional trend will be able to develop after the breakdown of this level and lower at the bottom of the projection channel to the level of 77,35.