Oil is today the main theme for the stock market and the ruble

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Oil theme, intensified the protracted decline of the U.S. stock index, now stands at the forefront of everything. When the stock market in a short period is adjusted for 8% -9%, can not help having associations with the weak global economy, not with the actions of the fed, and this in turn fosters expectations of weaker-than-expected demand for oil. Today is Wednesday, which means, given the severity of the topic, is the universal attention to one important macro economic publications from the United States.
It is expected that the growth of the U.S. commercial stocks of crude oil during the ninth week in a row will add to the negative. The consensus forecast of today’s publication from the US Department of energy, inspired by yesterday’s comparable data from API (American petroleum Institute), estimates that crude oil inventories in the US last week could grow by 2.1 million barrels, and it is quite a lot.
However, looking at such a depressing picture in and around the “black gold”, which at its current levels, dangerously approaching the level of $60/bbl for Brent, again looks threatening, you can make an involuntary conclusion that the domestic currency at its level in the district 66 rubles per dollar is not so bad.
Moreover, contrary to the above forecast, the ruble managed today with the opening of even slightly strengthened from 66,17 to 65,93 per dollar IP of 75.25 to 75.09 per Euro. Most likely, this is not because of some amazing, unexpectedly revealed qualities of the Russian economy or fiscal policy, but only in the context of the broader correction of the dollar against foreign currencies, as reflected in the decline in the dollar Index DXY with 96,75 to 96,59 over the same period – a much more modest movement than the ruble, but clearly relevant to it.
Another of today’s important for the stability of the ruble theme, of course, the results of the placement of OFZ in the modest amount of 20 billion rubles by the Finance Ministry. Yesterday – again, on a more modest scale than usual – placing by the Bank of Russia of its coupon bonds COBRAS gives some additional hope for a positive outcome due to the possible presence of small remnant unplaced institutional money, although, of course, the fact that the market has forced the Finance Ministry to adapt to the peculiarities of the current sanctions situation, of course, deeply negative.
Vladimir Rojankovski,
“International Financial Center”