Oil is getting cheaper, the ruble veers between a weak Euro and strong dollar

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On Tuesday, may 29, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow exchange rate of the us dollar calculations “tomorrow” increased by 49 kopecks (+0,79%) to 62,81 Euro rose by 1 kopeck (+0,02%), to RUB 72,41 Trading volume in the pair dollar/ruble amounted to $4.2 billion (+100,0%), and Euro/ruble – 659,1 million euros (+68,33%).
The Bank of Russia from 30 may set the official US dollar rate to ruble at the level of 62,642 rubles, which is higher than the previous close on COP. of 37.10 the Official Euro to rouble was fixed at RUB 72,5269 compared with the previous value of the single European currency has grown by 30.53 COP.
Trading ruble ended lower. He fell against the US dollar by 49 kopecks, Euro – 1 COP Its weakening contributed to falling oil prices and the dollar rising in price.
Against the single currency, the ruble maintained its position at the level of RUB 72,41 EUR is under pressure due to increased political risks in Italy and Spain, so the growth of the pair EUR/RUB was restrained.
The situation in Italy is heating up. Investors sell the Euro as they fear that at the next elections, the eurosceptics will gain even more votes and will hold a referendum on the country’s exit from the Euro zone.
In Spain on Friday, the Parliament may Express no confidence in Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his government.
Wednesday, may 30, in the Asian session, Brent oil goes down in price by 0,58%. On the background of rising dollar pressures on the oil market will continue, and therefore the ruble losing ground to foreign currencies at the opening of trading.
Support for the ruble today will be the auction of the Finance Ministry, which the Agency plans to place two OFZ at 30 billion rubles.
I think that the pressure on the Russian currency will continue to grow from buyers. To dollar bulls went on the offensive, they need to gain a foothold above the level 63,65 RUB per US dollar. The subject of sanctions has not been canceled. For today my target for the U.S. dollar is around 63,35 RUB Believe that buyers will close the price gap (gap) of 10 may, and then try to close it 19 days and I can not.
In the Euro/ruble dynamics side will continue as long as not resolved the situation in Italy and Spain, or the participants will transfer their attention to other events that haven’t happened yet. The range of fluctuations of the Euro is 72,05 – 73,05 RUB.
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Vladislav Antonov,
Analyst
Alpari