Oil came to the coveted 80 dollars
Tuesday quotes of Brent ventured into another assault on the highs for 3.5 years and came close to the coveted mark of 80. The barrel touched the level 79,43 and corrected, settling in around 78. The rollback was triggered mostly by technical factors, including overbought and the fear of players before the psychological level. But it is impossible not to note the zeal with which the bulls pushed the barrel to new heights.
Buyers draw inspiration from a number of factors, for a time forgetting about the shale revolution.
A powerful driver for the energy market lately is geopolitics, where the lion’s share of the optimism we have for the expectation of renewal of sanctions against Iran. However, in our opinion, in the near future this factor will recede into the background and cease to give the market support. First, this story has almost priced in, and secondly, the Saudis have already indicated that they are ready to “come to the rescue” in the event of a supply shortage because of falling exports from Tehran. Short-term Brent was supported by the situation with the transfer of the American Embassy in Israel.
Their contribution to the bull market continues to make up OPEC, which reports a high level of discipline and almost reached the goal of achieving 5-lenty average inventory level. In this context, the oil can still grow in the coming weeks on expectations the OPEC summit+, which is little more than a month. High probability that in anticipation of this event, exporters will fuel the optimism of the bulls rosy statements about the prospects of extending the deal. This is especially true in the case of Saudi Arabia, which aims at $ 100 per barrel.
Yesterday’s API report reflected the unexpected growth of stocks of crude oil by nearly 5 million barrels. The negativity was partially smoothed by the reduction of gasoline stocks by 3.3 million barrels. However, buyers a bit of tempered enthusiasm. Morning Brent is holding above the 78 level, and if the official report of the energy will be a little better the estimates, the quotations will refrain from drawdown.
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