Oil broke through $80, why not the ruble strengthened?

  • And
  • +A

Russian ruble to the middle of the day and could not benefit from the support of oil. The Russian currency now feels the pressure from the dollar, than the effect of raw material positive that it is expressed in the quotations. The US dollar to date is trading at the accounting period 61.92 rubles. and more expensive by 0.3%. The Euro is worth 72,98 RUB (+0,15%). Official rates of the Central Bank of Russia for tomorrow, may 18, 61,82 make up a RUB for the American currency and 73,02 RUB for Euro. Both estimates revised lower by 48 and 75 cents respectively.
Oil still broke through the psychologically important barrier of $80 per barrel Brent. Today’s peak is $80,18, the current price of $79,97. Apparently, the market will try to close the day above $80, later to gain a foothold above. See now oil prices are the highest since November 2014 is true, then the trend was the opposite. By the way, the current bullishness in the black gold lasts for exactly 11 months.
It’s already been mentioned about the reasons for this rally in oil, but in brief I will remind: the market fears that Venezuela will not be able to the end of the year to restore its raw production, it will give OPEC some handicap in the performance of the agreements to reduce the daily pumping of raw materials. In addition, China is gradually increasing the volume of oil imports, the growth of energy demand in production. It is a good support for the bullish racing.
Expensive oil is pleasant to the Russian budget, a barrel of black gold in rubles is now worth RUB 4952 is a new record. However, the ruble can not grow because, in addition to the dollar impact, it is within the purview of the Ministry of Finance buy foreign currency in excess of oil revenues of the state. Dollar 45 will not RUB, even if oil rises to $100, it is not profitable, this must simply accept.
Today’s session for the U.S. dollar will close within 61,50-62,50 RUB, of course, within the boundaries of the 72,60-73,80 RUB.
___________
Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari