Oil: Brent crude oil rose to $67,86

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Monday, February 26, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow exchange rate of the us dollar calculations “tomorrow” has decreased by 81 kopecks (-1,44%), to 55.70 Euro – 105 COP. (-1,52%) to 68,57 RUB Trading volume in the pair dollar/ruble amounted to $4.0 billion (-12,04%), and Euro/ruble – 333,0 million euros (+13,45%).
The Central Bank of Russia from February 27 lowered the official rate of US dollar to ruble in COP. of 84.00, up to 55,9208 RUB the Official Euro to ruble exchange rate was set at the level of 68,9224 RUB below the previous day 71,17 COP.
“Russian” has strengthened sharply against foreign currencies with the opening of trading on the Moscow exchange. In pairs, the dollar/ruble and Euro/ruble formed gaps (gap). They were the result of the day in Russia and improve Russia’s rating to investment grade by S&P on Friday, February 23. The index of government bonds of Russia (RGBI) responded to the rating increase growth by 0.33%, to 145,04.
Additional support the ruble had the current tax period, which peaked on Monday, February 26 (severance tax, VAT and excise duties). On the American session, the strengthening of the ruble contributed to oil prices. Brent crude oil rose to $67,86. At the end of the day, the dollar fell to 55.70 Euro – RUB to 68,57
On Tuesday, February 27, in the Asian session, the oil market is to the downside. Monday trading on oil in the us session ended with a slight growth, as in the European trading, the price of Brent fell from $of 67.56 to $66,70. On the background of General weakening of the US dollar on the American session, the price of oil recovered to $67,86 per barrel. The market is now trying to lay in rates the extension of the deal, OPEC+ for 2019, but the constant increase in oil rigs will keep the prices down.
If you consider the technical picture on the hourly and four-hour periods, the oil market expects bearish phase until March 1. The sellers go on the offensive when the price falls below $67 per barrel. This will be a technical correction so it doesn’t matter what the news will be released during this period. The depth of the correction will affect the dynamics of the dollar and us yields. When they increase the price of Brent will fall to $65,70 per barrel, while reducing the drop will be limited to $66,50 per barrel.
The domestic foreign exchange market was laid in prices increase the country rating. Today in the spotlight is a performance of Jerome Powell as the new head of the U.S. Federal reserve before the Committee on financial services of the house of representatives of the Congress of the USA (16:30 GMT). Traders and investors hope to hear comments on monetary policy and the economy.
This will be his first appearance, so it is unknown how it will react to markets. If you start from technical analysis, in my opinion, we can expect the weakening of the ruble to the dollar to the level 56,17 RUB over the “American”, the Euro – up to 69,11. the European currency. The upward movement habit should be considered as correction. I believe that the correction will start after falling oil prices Brent crude below $67,05 per barrel.
Vladislav Antonov,