Oil and the ruble will push the index of the Moscow exchange to a historical maximum

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The index of the Moscow exchange is one step away from a historic high. To 2376,96 points (current maximum is achieved on 26 February) were left to grow a modest 1.5% – a mere trifle by the standards of the domestic market. Expensive oil and a weak rouble contribute to the growth of the Russian indexes. The leaders are expected of paper oil and gas sector. Shares of the companies LUKOIL, Tatneft and NOVATEK traded in the area of its highest values.
The increasing trend in oil prices continues. Several factors contribute to this: the growth of imports of black gold to China (in April, he reached 9.6 million barrels per day), possible restrictions on the purchase of Iranian oil by the US and stagnation in mining in Venezuela. A barrel of Brent in the coming days could reach $80, at the same time, the ruble has lagged behind that of oil on the background of the General weakness of the currencies of developing countries.
Additional pressure on the ruble has increased the demand for currency from banks and Ministry of Finance (the latter now carries out purchases of foreign currency by 16.1 billion rubles a day is more than 10% of the daily trading volume USDRUB_TOM – dollars with the delivery of the purchased currency tomorrow). Indicative minimum demand for the latter placement of OFZ were placed only 6.4 billion rubles out of the planned 15 billion.
Oil and the ruble continue to push the Russian stock market is up. We expect that in the near future, the index of the Moscow exchange will update its historical maximum. If this does not happen until the end of may, the case can take a long time – in June, the Russian company will produce cutoff of dividends, respectively, most of the stocks will be cleared of “dividend component”. Last year the dividend yield of an index of the Moscow exchange (i.e. stock portfolio, prepared in accordance with the index) taking into account the interim payments of the companies amounted to 5,34%. This year the rate will not be less, respectively, in may, the index of the Moscow exchange may “lose” 2% to 4%.
In recent days we take note of the strong growth dividend stock, lagged behind the growth of the market in recent months is the paper companies, “ALROSA”, “FGC UES” shares, preference shares “Surgutneftegaz”. Dividend notes will continue to be in high demand from investors in the coming weeks.
According to an old traders ‘ belief, the latter on the Russian stock market rising shares of “Gazprom” and the companies of the electricity sector. Thursday, may 17, at the center of attention at the Moscow stock exchange are paper just the electricity sector. On the news of the redemption of “inter RAO” private securities “FGC UES” and JSC “RusHydro” rising shares of all three listed companies. Behind them can catch up with the rest of the paper sector.
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Roman Tkachuk,
Senior analyst,
Alpari