Oil and the fed’s – risk factors for the ruble

  • And
  • +A

After two days of growth, the rouble has again took a defensive position to the basket. Attempts of growth of oil quotations continue to attract those wishing to take profits, and the dollar strengthened again thanks to the support of the economy and monetary policy. In these circumstances, the prospects for a more prolonged or sustained strengthening of the Russian currency are unclear.
Despite local attempts to rise, the ruble remains vulnerable to factors which are now in the foreground. It is primarily the combination of the uncertainty of players in the oil market ahead of the summit of OPEC+ and the resumption of demand for the dollar in the international arena.
This week, the U.S. currency received an important message – the fed tightened its rhetoric and is now planning two more rate increases this year. And released yesterday data on retail sales confirmed that the country’s economy, at least at this stage, ready to play a more active normalization of monetary policy. It is not only a good support for the very “American”, but also a threat to emerging markets. In this context, the longer-term prospects of the Russian currency compounded.
No less important risk factor for the ruble – a potential drop in oil prices in fact the decision to increase the OPEC production+, which, according to the Saudis, is inevitable. Even if the market is fully incorporated in the price the easing of quotas, the decision of exporters would have a severe impact on quotations of black gold and increase concern about record shale production in the United States.
___________
Roman Blinov,
The head of the analytical Department of the company,
“International financial center”