Oil and the fed’s decision pushed the ruble

  • And
  • +A

Thursday, November 8, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow exchange rate of the us dollar calculations “tomorrow” increased by 58 kopecks (+0,88%), up to 66,90 Euro by 10 kopecks (+0,13%), to RUB 75,97
Trading on the Moscow stock exchange opened and closed with growth of the dollar and the Euro. Grinbek very quickly recovered from the elections in the U.S. Congress and played all the losses from its competitors. Due to the weakening of the Euro on the currency market the pair EUR/RUB was restrained.
The pressure on the national currency came from the General strengthening of the us dollar, the continuing fall in oil prices and renewed talk of anti-Russian sanctions from the United States.
In the evening it became known that the United States impose new sanctions against Russia over the situation in Ukraine. This was announced by the special envoy of the US state Department in Ukraine with Kurt Volker.
According to the results of a two-day meeting of the operations Committee on the open market Federal reserve (FOMC) decided to leave key interest rates unchanged in the range of 2.00% to 2.25%.
The pair EUR/USD fell 90 pips to 1,1352 on the dollar strengthening, as well as increased anxiety about the situation around the budget of the government of Italy.
Brent crude after an unsuccessful attempt to recover fell by 3.3%, to $70,55 per barrel. The price resumed its decline on inventories data in the United States. According to the US Department of energy said crude inventories rose for the week by 5.78 million barrels in the growth forecasts of 2 million barrels. Gasoline supplies increased by 1.85 million barrels (consensus: of-2.1 million barrels). Distillate stocks fell by 3.46 million barrels (consensus was at 2.03 million barrels). Oil production increased by 400 thousand barrels to 11.6 million barrels per day.
With the price of Brent $70,75 a barrel I was expecting to see the dollar at the level of RUB 68,85 Current dollar 66,90 RUB While we note that
the price of oil reached a key support.
In the Asian session, oil is trading in the red. In 27 trading days the sellers have completely blocked the upward movement $of 70.28 (August 15). During this time not had any serious setbacks up. Specifications for correction to $76,65 done.
As the correction in oil will affect the pair dollar/ruble?
The pair dollar/ruble broke through two resistance levels: 66,37 RUB and RUB of 66.75 Buyers headed to 67,15 RUB the Last line, which is holding them back from full-fledged “bullish” rally. Upward correction in oil can deter buyers and even force them to retreat 66,25 RUB per US dollar. After 67,15 RUB buyers offers the way to 67,75 68,40 RUB and RUB for a dollar. Next is the target levels after the completion of the upward correction in oil.
The Euro/ruble is the resistance 76,10 RUB After buyers opens the way for 77,29. the European currency. As soon as the problem will be solved with Italy, you will have to aim at 79,30 RUB.
___________
Vladislav Antonov,
Analyst
Alpari