Oil and tax payments to keep the ruble from declining
The fears over trade wars are gaining momentum, resulting in further retreat from risk in global markets. Despite the fact that at this stage we do not see the immediate negative effect of already announced measures, the current squabble seriously inhibits the business sentiment. Markets remain under pressure, driven primarily by expectations, not facts. Primarily affects those sites which are more than others tied to the international trade indicators.
Asian area (excluding Japan) sank yesterday at 2.1%. In Shanghai loss is much more serious: this morning recorded a fall of the main index of 0.6% after the collapse of the 3.8% on Tuesday. Markets talking about the need for policy easing China’s Central Bank to maintain liquidity. US stocks lost at the end of trading Tuesday to 0.5%, although they largely failed to defend the initial failure of 1.6%.
Also yesterday during the day and this morning, continuing pressures on the currencies of developing countries. The Turkish Lira returned to the area of the lows of last month. The Chinese yuan is actively reduced by almost a week after the news of the extension rates, as well as the deterioration in domestic statistics.
Adverse external environment has put pressure on the Russian currency Tuesday. Only the stability of the positions of oil and a favourable tax benefits of companies helped the USD / RUB back below 64 rubles at the end of the day. This level was important resistance in April and may, while preserving its topicality to this day. Some investors took profits after overcoming this level that kept the retreat of the Russian currency.
At the end of the day USDRUB has gained 42 pennies to 63.88, although during the day rose to 64.22. EURRUB has risen by 25 cents to 74.03. The achievement of an important round levels are able today to produce a further wave of selling of the ruble, if the heads of the three world’s largest Central Bank will not be able to stabilize the situation in the course planned for today performances. On the organized the ECB forum centralbanking today scheduled performances of heads of the fed, ECB, Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia. Hints of caution in the Central Bank policy is able to reduce the intensity of emotions in the markets and reduce the demand for protective assets.