OFZ auction will not be able to support the weakening ruble

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Russian rouble retreats on Wednesday in a basket of currencies. The US dollar to date is trading at 63,01 RUB (+0,3%). Euro stable around 74,02 RUB Official exchange rates of the CBRF for tomorrow, June 14, 63,11 make up a RUB for the American currency and of 74.13 RUB for Euro. Both estimates revised to increase, to 77 cents in both cases.
Today is Wednesday, the Finance Ministry holds traditional auctions on placement of OFZ. However, this time the volume of supply of debt is record low – just RUB 20.1 bn, distributed between the two releases. This is the minimum limit proposals over the past two months. The Agency is not expecting the high demand for debt securities and therefore does not expose to sale the excess OFZ, which, most likely, will not find buyers. Several modified sentence structure – one of the issues tied to inflation, it may be interesting to market participants, the second is short – and so will buyers.
The secondary OFZ market now looks weak, the external background for Russia is moderate, the risks associated with the behavior of emerging economies and their currencies. Excessive demand for OFZ in this time, most likely, will not, will not be on. However, the Ministry of Finance adopted a logical amendments to the routine procedure that will help to sell the reduced amount of securities.
The commodity market remains by mid-day in the “red” zone. A barrel of North sea Brent costs $75,43 and decreases by 0.6%. For the barrel of WTI Texas crude oil at the site for $66.1 per cent (-0.4 per cent). The focus of market attention moves to the June OPEC meeting, where I expect to increase daily production of black gold. According to the observations of API, for the week to 8 June, the oil reserves in the USA decreased by 0.7 million barrels, stocks of gasoline and distillates increased by 2.3 million and 2.1 million barrels, respectively. Today to publish a similar report from the US Department of energy, which can show reduction of stocks of oil by 2.7 million barrels on average.
The U.S. dollar closed the session environment in the corridor 62,80-63,85, the Euro finishes within 73,75-74,50 RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari