OFZ auction failed, what will happen to the ruble

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The Russian rouble is retreating slightly in a basket of currencies on Wednesday afternoon, but while all these movements are well within the borders of consolidation after the tumultuous weeks. The US dollar to date is of 65.67 RUB and rises by 0.2%. The Euro is trading at 75,82 RUB (+0,2%). Official rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Thursday, October 4, are 65,42 RUB per U.S. dollar and the Euro 75,73 RUB. Both estimates revised to increase by 20 and 51 kopecks, respectively.
Today the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation held the auction on placement of OFZ for the first time in four weeks. The Agency considered that the external background is smoothed, and stock volatility, the minimum – you can return to borrowing on the bond market. At the moment the results of the first edition of series 26223 maturing in February 2024 – with the limit of RUB 10 billion of securities sold by 7.4 billion RUB. the Second edition is also a limited volume of RUB 10 billion, and it may well be that the results will be similar.
In fact, the auction failed. This means that the market continues to appreciate the potential geopolitical risk and not willing to have the capital to Russia, despite quite a dynamic Sep. The plans of the Ministry of Finance on borrowing are not reduced, and how the Agency will implement at least interesting.
Commodity market to the middle of the day is in balance. A barrel of North sea Brent costs $84,85 (+0,05%), investors are waiting for is scheduled for the evening of publications from the US Department of energy on oil reserves last week. If there stocks rose, the bulls in oil will receive additional support.
The US dollar closed trading environment in the range of 65.50-65,95, the Euro and finish in the borders 75,50-of 76.00 RUB
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Anna Bodrova,
senior analyst,
Alpari