New US sanctions can derail the economy of Russia

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Become aware of the details of the bill to expand sanctions against Russia, introduced in the U.S. Congress senators Lindy Graham and Robert Menendez. In particular, it relates to the prohibition of transactions and freezing assets in the United States to Russian state banks, including those it will affect, “Sberbank”, “VTB” and “WEB”. If so, then this is a potentially strong impact on the international business of Russian banks.
In addition, the proposed bill is the proposal to consider the question of recognition of Russia as a “state sponsoring terrorism”. This could put Russia on a par with Iran and increase sanctions. Recall that in Iran the US has imposed a ban on the export of oil.
So in this scenario can become a question about the ban on the purchase of Russian oil and gas. And it really is a serious blow to the Russian economy, to which all the rest of the sanctions seem “flowers”. Russia used to live in the constraints, but such a scenario would be a heavy blow.
Foreign policy pressure on Russia intensifies. Today, the U.S. state Department spokesman Heather Nauert urged to withdraw Russian troops from Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Until September, the US Congress is in recess, but the first month of autumn can be a difficult time for Russia. The likelihood of the bill in its current revision is small, for congressmen, it is an opportunity to score political points before the elections in Congress and for President Donald trump is an additional instrument of pressure on Russia.
But the very existence of this bill is alarming, it refers to the most severe sanctions, is a ticking time bomb. In recent weeks, the Russian stock market looks confident with the exception of the shares of “Sberbank”, in the equity of which a high proportion of foreign anchor investors. If not for the low probability of the bill in its current form, the market reaction would have been much more acute.
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Roman Tkachuk,
Senior analyst,
Alpari