Morgan Stanley predicts recession in Russia due to new us sanctions
The tightening of U.S. sanctions will lead to a recession Russian economy, according to experts at Morgan Stanley. This is the third investment Bank, which last week downgraded the country’s economic Outlook due to the restrictive measures Washington.
The prognosis is very strange, especially considering the release of oil prices at $80 a barrel. Probably politics again won not only the economy, but elementary logic. From our point of view, at the end of the year Russia’s economy will grow by 2%, then it is very likely to increase by 2-3% annually.
It is not an economic breakthrough, but definitely not a recession. Positive factors for the Russian economy include the world Championship on football-2018 and continued low inflation will allow the Bank of Russia to reduce the key rate. Moreover, with high probability, this year the international reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will exceed the target of $500 billion.
However, large-scale revaluation of the Russian stock will not grow then, and only then, when they buy. And because of sanctions by Western investors should not wait.
The Director of analytical Department,