Investors do not believe in the ruble

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The ruble continues to strengthen for the second consecutive trading session. Short-term he is supported by global demand for riskier assets and growing demand for Russian OFZ. Investors ‘ optimism is associated with the current version of the bill on the U.S. sanctions against Russia. It is expected that the ban will affect only the acquisition of new OFZ, and if they were purchased before the sanctions, to sell securities do not need. However, the demand is only on the primary market according to the latest auctions of the Ministry of Finance. In turn, the secondary market demand is not increasing, the index RGBI last month, is trading around the level – 136 points.
Short-term, the currency pair dollar/ruble may strengthen with the aim of 65.50, the maximum value within the framework of technology – 65,20. Long term the ruble will remain under pressure.
The weakening of the ruble in the medium term, puts more and more hedge funds, according to a report by the Chicago Mercantile exchange. The volume of bets against the ruble reached a record high in the history of statistics, exceeding the as the performance of the summer last year, when hedge funds played in the fall of the ruble to 70 to the dollar, and the devaluation record peaks in December 2014 and January 2016.
Ivan Kapustyasky,
Senior analyst,
Forex Optimum