Inflation in Russia accelerates harder

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In October, according to Rosstat, inflation rose 0.4% in September, the effect of the August deflation has been offset. However, he began to run out in September, when inflation in comparison with August has grown during the month by 0.2%. Food prices in October increased more than the prices of non-food products (0.6% vs. 0.5% growth, but excluding fruit and vegetable products prices for food products rose in October by 0.7%).
Annual inflation (October 2018 compared to October 2017) continues to accelerate in October, it was 3.5% and since the beginning of 2018 grew by 2.9%. Recall that in September the annual inflation was only 3.4, and inflation since the beginning of 2018 – 2.5%. Heaviest in October has stoked the growth of annual inflation rising prices for nonfood goods and services.
In October, the growth of gasoline prices in annual terms amounted to 11.3%. However, it can be noted that in August the price of gasoline grew at an annual rate at the same pace. So in the 3rd and early 4th quarters combined efforts of the state and oil companies the rise in gasoline prices has been contained. Otherwise we’d see official inflation at 4% per year, while the government and the Central Bank expected to see such growth only at the very end of the year.
Most likely, at the end of 2018, the forecast of the government and the Bank of Russia’s inflation at 4% per year will fail, and annual inflation at the end of December will be exactly at this level. However, it is possible that the population will estimate a personal inflation is much higher (about 2-2. 5 times) than official statistics.
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Natalia Milchakova,
The Deputy Director of analytical Department,
Alpari