In the Russian market continue to dominate the bears, the ruble is left without support

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On Tuesday, oil prices continued their growth that started last Friday, on the eve of Saturday’s OPEC decision to raise production by 1 million barrels a day, which was quite expected. Bidding began at $74.6 per barrel of Brent, and reached after lunch, the $75.5. Before the American trading session was followed by a correction to $74,0, but the prices quickly and steadily recovered, and by the end of the day were close to $76.2 per barrel.
Report of the American petroleum Institute showed a decline of oil reserves for the week by 9.2 million barrels, after a decline of 3.0 million barrels in the prior week, which also supported the rise in prices for black gold. In the morning of Wednesday, the growth stopped and oil was trading in a horizontal range of $76,2-$76,6. Likely daily range for today’s trading, Brent crude is the $75.5-$77,0 per barrel.
The medium range which is defined by the closest significant support levels and resistance remains between $72,7-of$77.5. Today the statistics change oil inventories will be published by the energy information Administration of U.S. Department of energy. Is expected to decline for the week to 2.6 ml barrels after declining by 5.9 million barrels. a week earlier.
The world’s largest stock indices closed mixed on Tuesday. On this background the auctions in the Russian stock ended with a correction. Ruble Mosberg index lost 0.25 percent, the dollar-denominated RTS index on the background of growth of dollar is stronger by 0.59%. Among leaders of decrease – preferred shares of Tatneft (-2,6%) and “Transneft” (-2,18%). The Dow 30 increased by 0.12 percent.
In the morning of Wednesday most of the Asian indices were down 0.3-1.0 percent. With the exception of the Australian ASX, which hesitantly was up less than 0.1%. Futures on the S&P 500 index was trading in the morning near 2727 points, to 0.06% below the closing levels of the previous trading day. Morning “sideways” in oil prices and correction of most Asian pads set of moderately negative external background before opening the Russian stock market, which may continue a slight decline. Likely day trading corridor by index Mosberg is in the range of values 2210-2255 points, RTS index — 1105-1125 points. Publications statements of Russian issuers are expected today.
On Tuesday, amid a moderate decline of EUR/USD with 1,1720 to 1,1650, foreign currency to the ruble ottorgovalis differently. At the end of the day on Masuria, the dollar calculations “tomorrow” rose to 63,0275 RUB (+24,5 COP.), the European currency fell to 73,4225 RUB (-2,5 COP.). One of the factors of pressure on the ruble, the decline in sales of foreign currency by exporters with the continued demand for it by the Ministry of Finance.
The morning auction of oil show complete calm, against this background, we expect a neutral start of trading the ruble. At the same time, it can exert pressure General nervousness in the markets of countries with emerging economy and the flight from risk, set against the backdrop of trade wars. Expected daily trading range for USD 62.4-637 rubles, for European currency — 72,7-74,2 RUB.
Vadim Iosub,
Senior analyst,