If not oil will fall, the ruble will also have to wait

  • And
  • +A

On Wednesday, oil prices fell and practically gave back all the rapid growth Tuesday. It appeared that the discharge in the trade war between the US and China, the hope which flashed on Tuesday, is not so clear, and the prices of raw materials and stocks plunged down. Bidding began at $60.7 per barrel for Brent crude began to decline. In the afternoon a gradual decline gave way to a steep drop in the evening prices reached $57,9, although the closure of markets slightly recovered to us $58.9.
In addition to tensions over trade wars, declining prices contributed to the statistics of the energy information Administration of the United States. It showed the growth of oil reserves of 1.6 million barrels for the week whereas analysts expected them to decline by 2.8 million barrels. Thursday morning quotes black gold was hovering close to yesterday’s close. Probable trading range for the remainder of the day is for the grade Brent $of 58.4-59.5 per barrel. The medium range which is defined by the closest significant support levels and resistance was reduced to $55,7 for 61.2.
Almost all the Western indexes closed yesterday deep in the red zone. Not spared by the global sale and the Russian market. The ruble-denominated index Mosberg lost 1.61%, and the dollar-denominated RTS index to the weakening of the ruble decreased more by 2.94%. Among leaders of decrease – System (-4,46%) and RUSAL (-3,25%). Dow 30 down at the same time on 3,05%. Thursday morning the majority of indexes of Asia-Pacific countries decreased by 0.3% and 2.9%. The exception was Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, which added a modest 0.1%.
Futures on the S&P 500 index, recovering after yesterday’s collapse, was trading this morning close to 2 853 p., 0.42% above level of closing of the previous trading day. Morning external background does not give clear signals before opening of the stock market: most Asian markets falling, oil is held in place, on futures on the S&P 500 is growing.
We expect a neutral open on the Russian market, and then the participants will be eager to catch the incoming news from the global market. Likely day the corridor index Mosberg is in the range of values 2610-2665 points, the RTS index — 1245-1270 points. Today financial statements according to IFRS for the first half of the year will release “Mechel” and X5 Retail Group for the second quarter.
Eve was inside the global sale of not only stocks, but also currencies of emerging markets. The alarm was not only around trade war with China, but also in connection with the threat of another default in Argentina. These events, plus falling oil prices have hurt the ruble. At the end of the day on Masuria, the dollar rose to RUB 66,0150 (+108,5 COP.), updating the highs from early March, but the European currency has grown to RUB 73,5600 (+102 COP.).
Morning stability of oil prices is able to break the fall of the ruble, if only this will not prevent a global flight from risk. The expected daily range for the dollar amounts to 65.4, with 66.7 rubles, for European currency — 72,8-74,3 RUB.
_______________
Vadim Iosub,
Senior analyst,
“Information-analytical center “Alpari”