IEA: oil Price Brent crude will remain at $ 60
Thanks to a deal with the OPEC prices for oil of mark Brent could stabilize at around $60 per barrel, and will not change as dramatically as on the eve of its conclusion. This forecast was made by the International energy Agency (IEA). In early October, the price of a barrel of Brent was $86, and by the end of November fell below $58. We broadly agree with the opinion of the IEA, a hike of $50 a barrel has been postponed. But only temporarily.
We believe that next year the U.S. stock market will see a strong fall, the bubble will burst. The S&P we expect at the level of 1800-2000 points. The price of Brent oil could go for $30-35, though it’s unlikely to last there for long. OPEC actions+ will be useless in a crisis. In principle, Russia is ready for this scenario.
Russia’s international reserves amount to us $462 billion. However, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the negative scenario may not exceed 10%. In December 2014, during the currency crisis, the key rate of the Bank of Russia was raised from 10.5% to 17%. However, to support the ruble interventions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decided not to. What, in General, it is not surprising, since the Central Bank targets inflation, not exchange rates.
The price of oil is critical, especially for the budget, not the economy. The share of the oil and gas sector accounts for about half of revenues.
The Director of analytical Department,