How much will rise the exchange rate?
Ruble breaks up in a basket of currencies. Dollar falls to 0.8% and is 66,30 EUR RUB decreases of 0.3% and is estimated at RUB 77,71 Official rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Friday, September 21, are 66,47 RUB/77,75 USD and RUB/EUR. Both estimates are reduced by 53 and 61 kopecks, respectively.
The main question now is – how far will the sellers in the pair dollar/ruble? In the BFL, there is a recovery after the largest sales of oil is high, and the dollar rally temporarily suspended. Why is it temporary? Because the US is waging a trade war with the world, and China – only the first and main object of attack here. Because of anti-Russian sanctions will be tightened, it’s a matter of time. Because the U.S. Federal reserve next week will raise the interest rate and will give likely indication of a similar move in December.
Previously, the ruble sank as the OFZ sector, pretty much open to buyers the ideal choice for entering the position. Rebound from the “bottom” we are now witnessing.
Oreshkin, for example, speaks of faith in the course of 64.0 RUB/USD, “although many doubt it.” This course pitching, in the range 63-70,60, few of business a pleasant, clear and helpful. It seems that in the last half of the month, the management of corporations and enterprises only busy and that the hedging assets and positions, because the mood swings are on the Playground too strong even for the ruble. It should be recalled that in the fourth quarter, Russia faces large payments of external debt.
According to the payment plan you know that it will be paid of $31.8 billion, the peak will occur, as usual, in December. Payments on public debt remain at high values, and although the state “stocked up” currency, companies will have to address these issues alone.
Commodity market to the middle of the day in positive territory. A barrel of North sea Brent oil rises in price on 0,4% and costs $79,72 – line in the $80 not far off, and he is quite likely given the weakening of “American”. USD will conclude the session on Thursday within the boundaries of 66.00-of 67.00, the Euro closes the day in the range 77,40-78,25 RUB.
Analyst At Alpari