How much more will grow, the ruble?
The special representative of the state Department’s Kurt Volker said that the American authorities will impose new sanctions against Russia “every month or two”. He also said that the position of Donald trump in relation to Russia has become much tougher lately. The purpose of sanctions is to persuade Russia to dialogue on Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Elvira Nabiullina has declared its readiness to include the “printing press”. The Central Bank was ready to support the Russian debt market and to stabilize the financial system of Russia, if such a need arises. At the moment, the Central Bank does not see risks to financial stability. In the budget for 2018 – 2020 are already provided for infusion of 600 billion rubles in three of the largest state Bank. Most likely the money will be sent to financial institutions through the printing press.
On this background the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow stock exchange is kept around 65 rubles 65 kopecks, the Euro traded at the level of 75 rubles and 25 kopecks. The MICEX index dipped to 2370 points, and quotes of Brent crude oil holding just below 80 dollars per barrel. Bitcoins according to CoinMarketCap rolled below 6500 dollars per unit.
The situation on the Russian financial market continues to develop under those scenarios, about which we wrote earlier. We see the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar and the Euro in view of the upcoming tax week. It is likely that by the end of October we will achieve lows on the Euro/ruble and dollar/ruble. The U.S. dollar exchange rate may break below $ 65. But to dwell below this value, most likely quotes will fail and we will have a new rise of the dollar. We expect growth of up to 67 – 68 rubles in the medium term.
The head of the analytical Department of the company,