How far the ruble will fall, if the collapse of America?
We have already noted that at the end of this month expect a sharp drop of the American indices. The reason is not only the overbought U.S. securities, but the actions of American financial companies, for the victory of the Democratic party in US elections. It will be a blow for President Donald Trump. From the stock price depends heavily on the confidence of American consumers. If we are right, then the sale will not only Russian stocks, but in the ruble.
The Bank of Russia has already declared that he will return to currency market intervention.
However, without instructions from the Kremlin, from our point of view, this is unlikely. RF Central Bank targets inflation, not exchange rates. And, of course, the fall of the ruble is beneficial and budget, and exporters. We are not very surprised if in our scenario the ruble will fall by 10%, or the dollar will be trading around 72 rubles. the Future depends on how to behave in oil. If the prices of black gold will remain at a comfortable level, the rouble will gradually recover, but the Russian action is unlikely.
The Director of analytical Department,