Foreign exchange market: Jerome Powell and other nine important events in the world markets next week
Next week the attention of investors will be chained to the domestic stock market since the end of February and beginning of March will be marked by the publications of financial reports. On this background the shares of Russian companies will be more volatile, which increases the possibility of obtaining profits in the short term. The currency market will also give investors a chance to earn.
Monday, February 26, will be pretty quiet. Important statistics worth noting the sale of new homes in the U.S. in January, is expected to improve. Against this background, the strengthening of the dollar may continue. The Euro-dollar pair has a chance to fall to the level of 1.21.
On Tuesday, February 27, statistics will come out in Europe and the United States. Germany will publish consumer price index for February. States will present the statistics on orders for durable goods, home price index and consumer confidence index. According to our forecasts, the data will be mixed, so who will pull the blanket growth, the dollar or the Euro is difficult to predict.
Wednesday, February 28, financial statements according to IFRS for the year 2017 will publish the “savings Bank”. The market expects improvement in financial performance, so Bank stocks may update historical highs, therefore the mark 300 RUB per share, the largest financial institution in Russia in the offing.
International site the morning will be harvesting data from China. But what will be the business activity in the country at the end of the celebration of the New year, investors might be surprised.
You need to be prepared to lower prices in the commodity markets. Further, the focus of market participants will once again be the Euro/dollar. The EU will publish the February inflation, and the US –the final data on GDP growth for the fourth quarter of last year. In the quarterly expression possible deterioration in comparison to the original estimate. If it happens, then short-term strengthening of the dollar will end.
A more important event for the currency market will be the first speech by the new head of the fed Jerome Powell. What tactics will adhere to the President’s protege of Donald trump, will determine the future of the financial markets. Tough rhetoric and plans to raise interest rates faster than planned, will lead investors to panic, the markets will turn red, so to say “good-bye” correction in the us market yet.
On Thursday, the first day of spring and the financial statements in accordance with IFRS for the year 2017 will release Aeroflot and inter RAO. Carrier’s shares is heavily corrected, a positive can liven up quotes. The energy sector coming out of a period of stagnation, we expect better results from “inter RAO”.
China will continue to surprise its postnovogodny statistics. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector will be represented by UK, EU and USA.
On Friday in sight will be the British pound and canadian dollar. Canada will release GDP data and UK the index of business activity in the construction sector. Forecast data is not yet known, however, we assume that the pound and “canadian” will continue to decline.
As for the habit, they gradually move to the lower limit of its trading corridor. This means that during the week the pair dollar/ruble may reach the level of 55.5 RUB over the USD and the Euro/ruble – to the level of 68,5 rubles for Euro.
The Deputy Director of analytical Department,