Fitch will prepare for the next ruble collapse
Under the curtain of the week players on the Russian stock market will care about only one event – the publication of the investment rating of the country by Fitch.
And as a good sign this publication is scheduled to the 20th anniversary of the technical default of Russia in memory of the events of 1998. However, experts believe that in Russia today it is impossible the recurrence of such crisis and many of the surveyed analysts see no reason to revise the current rating, despite the sanctions risks.
So the excitement today can be put aside, and the conservation rating will give our market a couple of days correctional dynamics. But with the approaching date of August 22 when you can clear up the further actions of the American authorities, the market will freeze in suspense.
Therefore I believe that the Russian currency may continue local growth, but it will be limited by the level of 65.50-66 rubles.
Sorry to hope on an aggressive wave of strengthening is not necessary. As I wrote before, new risks carry the oil prices that are down for 7 consecutive weeks. Although the January highs 2018. yet act as nearest support level for long-term sustainability of that support I wouldn’t count on it.