Experts expect growth of dollar to world currencies

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Expect neutral opening of the Russian market amid rising 0.4% in futures on global stock indices. Investors took the cancellation of the meeting of leaders of the United States and the DPRK as an informational noise and no consequences for the market it is not responsible. In the current time should be based on the fluctuation of yield curve of Treasury bonds and the dynamics of the dollar index.
Because after the publication of the may FOMC protocols of the U.S. Federal reserve likely to increase interest rates to 2% has risen by 12 percentage points to 82%, investors can increase the proportion of cache in the portfolio prior to the FOMC meeting in mid-June, thereby avoiding short investments. At the same time, next week, the Treasury plans new auctions of bills, notes, bonds. Given the maturity of the market will take up to $40 billion Plus will publish an index of personal expenses of the U.S. population, the Outlook for which is very close to the 1.9% with the target level of 2%. These factors will help the dollar to strengthen against world currencies Friday and next week.
On the other hand, the spread of LIBOR-OIS narrowed to 45 b.p. over the past two weeks, indicating a weakening demand for dollars. But given the imminent increase in rates, the spread will remain wide relative to the values for 2017. Against the ruble plays a weak decline in oil prices because of the statement of the head of the Ministry of energy about the discussion at the OPEC meeting in June of the soft reduction commitments with respect to the transaction OPEC+.
In other words there are hints of a gradual tapering of the transaction. But, in our opinion, Saudi Arabia will be against due to the fact that it will be satisfied with the price of oil above $80-85 per barrel. The country needs money for the execution of the development programme “Vision 2030”. After the tax period, the ruble weakened, and now it will only support its dividend payout which will be converted into dollars.
Viktor Veselov,
Chief analyst,