Expert: oil prices will reach highs in early November
On the currency market of the Moscow exchange continues to rally, strengthening of the ruble. With local maxima, marked September 10, 2018, the dollar fell by almost 7% and is now trading near 65,9 RUB.
The main reason for the consolidation – restoration of the national currency correlation with oil prices, after the failure of the Bank of Russia on the buying currency on the open market in the interests of the Ministry of Finance. Previously, the ruble actually corresponded embodied in the “fiscal rule” $40 per barrel, which is two times lower than the current market value of “black gold”. Thus, even with the pressure of sanctions, high oil prices in a free exchange rate supports the strengthening trend.
At the end of September 2018 nearby futures for Brent crude under long-term uptrend in the moment rose to $82,55 per barrel. The last time similar levels were recorded four years ago in November 2014. Among the key drivers of rising prices – sanctions against Iran and declining production in Venezuela.
The increase in US production while expanding kompensiruet behind global economic growth global consumption. The oil market is in deficit for six consecutive quarters.
We predict that the peak price for oil grade Brent in 2018 will be achieved on 5 November in the framework of the speculative reaction of market participants to impose sanctions against Iran. In the moment near futures will rise in price to $91 per barrel.
According to calculations, in case of further recovery based on the dollar from oil prices to the levels prior to the introduction of a budget rule in 2017, and mitigation or cancellation of sanctions of the Senate of the US dollar in November may drop to 55.
In turn, by the end of 2018 in the baseline, most probable scenario continues to be expected of 59.3 rubles per dollar, since in fact the onset of sanctions against Iran, subsequently there may be some correction in oil prices down.