Euro again of concern to migrants
EUR/USD started July decline. The single European currency is not yet possible “catch” for any robust levels – the market finds a reason “to be scared” and go into “safe” assets.
Today on the forefront of what is happening in Germany. Interior Minister Horst Seehofer has decided to leave his post because I disagree with the immigration policy, which is currently being. In fact, European countries continue to assume full responsibility for visitors than increase the burden on their budgets, and citizens of the country.
Last week’s EU summit seems to be progress in this direction, despite protests from Italy. Now it is evident that European States still “needs to work” in the direction of making the ideal solution for this urgent problem.
Care Seehofer makes the ruling party, the CSU is very vulnerable, as the Minister of internal Affairs and occupies the position of Chairman of the political organization. It turns out that Angela Merkel remains his closest assistant. It’s not a good news for the ruling party.
The resignation Seehofer, among other things, makes the political future of the CSU and most of Angela Merkel even more uncertain. It’s a negative for the Euro that is considered right now, the market.
The aspects of migration policy “hovering” over the European authorities for many years, and as far as it goes, the more increases the anger of the population. In such circumstances, the parties that are in power now in Europe, will be very difficult to maintain their position. At the same time, very few people want to take responsibility for unpopular measures.
If you evaluate the medium-term dynamics of the EURUSD from the point of view of technical analysis, it is worth noting that the downward trend is not completed and is only in the phase of time correction. Looking at lower highs and higher lows, we see the formation of a triangle consolidation. The longer the consolidation, and what her range is, the faster and bigger may be the output pulse. Signal Loy’s early exit from the consolidation will be a breakout of one of its boundaries.
At the moment you can see 2 different levels of the triangle of contraction. That is, in order to overcome major levels of support or resistance, the market must first overcome local. One of them at the moment is the mark 1,1685 expected which will release quotes to the main resistance 1,1735. In turn, a break of this level could allow the market to develop its uptrend correction 1,2100.
If we consider the possible breakdown of local support around 1,1540, you can see that in the way of development down-trend market meets an obstacle in the form of a meaningful minimum 1,1511. And only its breakdown will open the way lower to the 1.1400 level, and then to the support line of the main channel of the downward trend at 1,1300.