Dollar exchange rate exceeded 64 rubles, the highest level for 1.5 years
The Russian ruble yesterday, was actively lose ground, retreating to the dollar to 105 cents and closing at the end of the day at the level of 64.02. The weakening of the Russian currency against the Euro was more moderate. The pair EURRUB rose Wednesday by 41 kopecks to 76.48. Actively dollar gaining against major currencies of developed countries on the global Forex market the last two weeks. During this time, the American currency managed to break out of the range, where he spent more than three months, and add more than 4%. During this same time, the USD / RUB rose 6%. However, the fall of the Russian ruble against the dollar this week has accelerated since the factors pressure were also falling oil prices.
Oil is priced in dollars, so a strengthening U.S. dollar is causing pressure on the quotes of “black gold”. In the result, Brent moved to the correction after a phase of rapid growth in April. From the highs of Monday to lows Tuesday, falling over 4%, dropping Brent to the levels near $73.
Yesterday’s comments by the fed have not yet managed to reverse this trend in the strengthening of the American currency. Saving rate, the FOMC has signaled that focuses not only on current inflation but also for a wide range of other indicators, which was seen as “tolerant” position. The comments initially sent the dollar to fall, but soon a more global trend prevailed, and the dollar index at the close of the day has updated the highs from the end of December last year.
From the technical analysis, the dollar looks overbought, and cardiac growth may be perceived by the players as a chance to take profits after a mini-rally the last two weeks.
For the pair dollar/ruble is important that yesterday’s close was the highest since December of 2016, although quite far from the intraday peaks of the 11th of April. For future prospects it would be important to have how to behave like a couple in the area 64-66. Breakthrough of the upper end of the range will mean the final surrender of the ruble. This is only possible in the case of “support” from the oil, if that will go into a deeper correction. A much more likely scenario is that, as in the middle of 2016, the rouble will receive support close to 66, halting its decline.