Dollar aims for 70 rubles
Ruble as of Wednesday morning, losing 0.3% against the dollar and 0.5% against the Euro. Thus the rate returned to the area of the lows of August, despite moderately favorable external background: the global markets stabilized after promises of politicians of China and the US will sign the agreement on the trade deal. At the same time, oil receives support after the inventory report, which noted another week of decline.
However, the ruble ignores the positive, giving ground for the fourth consecutive trading session. During this time he lost about 2% in pairs with the dollar and the Euro, returning to the area August highs after a brief pullback. If the Russian currency “will not budge”, the risks increase attenuation after overcoming the important level at 74 on EURRUB and USDRUB at 67.
FxPro analysts expect such a development of events, repeatedly warning of the low potential of the Russian currency in August. Now EURRUB already just near 74, is testing the highs of the month, the capture of which is able to finally drop the resistance of the ruble and quickly divert a couple of 76 – the next level, where in the early years, there has been a reversal to decrease.
The ruble was also trading near the specified “features” at 67 per dollar. Taking this level potentially opens the way for the growth of the pair down to 70, because the interval 67-70 is not observed significant levels of consolidation. The history of the last 5 years shows that after rising above 65, the dollar fairly quickly reach level 70, and only there should expect a fierce struggle over the next trend.
Trade war remain an unresolved problem of the world economy, making the ruble and oil are vulnerable, as well as forming the basis for further weakening of the Russian currency above 70 per dollar and 77 per Euro at year-end. Possible escalation of trade disputes in the US and China forces to consider as a potential option to achieve these levels in September.
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