Capital outflow from Russia increased 48 times
The Bank of Russia this week released data on net capital outflow from Russia in the third quarter. According to preliminary estimates of the regulator, the figure grew by 48 times compared to the same period last year and amounted to $19.2 billion versus $0.4 billion a year earlier.
The figure is actually not supposed to scare anyone, Russia all claimed due to the rise in oil prices. Positive balance of foreign trade in January-September 2018 increased 1.7 times to $136,3 billion, compared with $80.4 billion in the same period of 2017.
The outflow of capital, from our point of view, associated primarily with a reduction in the share of nonresidents in the OFZ. Was played by two factors: politics and the economy. Risks the imposition of sanctions against OFZ stored, plus a fed rate hike would lead to a General outflow of capital from emerging markets. And, of course, the third quarter is the period of dividend payout for ADR.
Another is more interesting, whether arranged in the hunt for offshore assets of Russian aristocracy. The example of Roman Abramovich and Chelsea shows that the situation is very serious. Will Russian oligarchs to defend themselves with cryptocurrency? According to unofficial information the offshore assets of Russian origin are estimated at $1.3 trillion. Scary to think what will happen to the quotes, even if part of this amount will be invested in Russian securities, both equities and OFZ.
The Director of analytical Department,