Brent crude oil rose to a cost above $80 per barrel
Brent crude oil rose to a cost above $80 per barrel. Despite the fact that mark is a psychological level, the event is still enjoyable. Pleasant primarily for oil exporters, in particular for Russia and its oil and gas companies in particular. That the effect of rising prices has demonstrated the reporting “Rosneft” in I quarter of 2018. The Corporation was able to increase its net profit in the first three months at 7.3%, the index amounted to 81 billion rubles. Revenue increased by 22%.
Enhances the positive recovery of the oil market, a weak ruble, which was supposed to grow, but something prevents him of either a fiscal rule or external circumstances. Let me remind you that in the fall of 2014, when a barrel cost about the same per dollar, the exchange has proposed 42-43 rubles.
Thus, today’s course is also in the hands of exporters, we expect the positive financial reporting from Russian oil and at the end of II quarter, as in June the situation will likely remain equally positive. According to our forecasts, the price of a barrel of Brent crude may rise to $85. The most serious race of the quotes will be after the imposition of sanctions against Iran.
Another beneficiary of the growth in oil prices will be the Russian budget, income growth will reduce the budget deficit and may increase costs. Now the Ministry of Finance managed to keep the gap between revenues and expenditures at 3.5% of GDP. Given the fact that the pace of the domestic economy again went into decline, the rise in oil prices came in handy.
In the II quarter of the price of oil rose from $66 to $80 per barrel, more than $ 10. According to our calculations, at an average rate of 60 rubles to the dollar, the Russian budget for the year needs to get a 1-1,3 trillion rubles of additional income.
Against the background of high oil prices in the near future should look to buy shares of oil companies of Russia, as good reporting promises to stimulate the growth in the value of shares, as well as generous dividend payouts. To bet on the ruble, on the contrary is not necessary, as in the current environment of sharp appreciation of the ruble due to oil prices should not wait.
The Deputy Director of analytical Department,