Bloomberg: the Ruble is the weakest and most vulnerable currency today
Bloomberg Analytics is called the ruble (and not, say, the Turkish Lira or Argentinian peso) the weakest and most vulnerable among widely traded currencies, citing falling oil prices and the threat of new sanctions. Speaking of the latter, the mind involuntarily comes all are pretty overexposed cross-border incident in the Kerch Strait. Since he has such a strong impact on the market will have to take it apart in detail.
To assume that the Ukrainian side is earnestly hoped that boats and tug pass under the bridge, unnoticed by border boats of Russia, following from Odessa to Berdyansk – in our opinion, very naive. Obviously the presence of a clearly developed plan and carefully outlined the script, but in this case, it automatically raises the question who needed it and why? If the first – “who” – are all more or less clear, the second – “why” – at first glance, there is a deadlock.
However, upon closer inspection and reading the latest news, everything falls into place. Talk about the possible cancellation of the meeting of Putin and trump on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Argentina that emerged in the Wake of this seemingly unobtrusive and obviously staged episodes fit into the common theme and scenario.
Episode handshakes trump and Putin in Paris for the celebration events of the anniversary of the events of the First world war clearly led many in a state of heightened anxiety. Given the above arguments, now the ruble is indeed very non-obvious prediction. If the meeting will still be cancelled, investors this will be seen as a sign that a new round of sanctions will be followed in the near future, not in the New year.
Then the possible acceleration of negative expectations, and it will accelerate the domestic currency to the level of watershed 70 per dollar. Otherwise, i.e. if all the “make some noise and will calm down” – is a return to the sentiment as of last Friday, 23 November, and the ruble will get stronger up to 65,80-65,90.
Meanwhile, speaking on the status of the ruble, it could be called the weakest, not so much, how many, rather, the most controversial currency. After all, Bloomberg Analytics is not the first day in debate and stand your “sharks” of the business, the investment Bank Morgan Stanley, whose analysts believe that the Russian currency is already “eliminated” and will be strengthened, as well as rating Agency Moody’s, whose analysts tipped the acceleration of the growth of Russian GDP in 2019, and with it, if you follow the logic, obviously, and the ruble.
The era of “cheap money” gives way not so much the era of “expensive money” (tonight in the US waiting for the speech of fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which should shed light on the mood of the American financial regulator, in terms inherent in the market another increase in the key interest rates in December), but the era of contradictions and uncertainty.
“International financial center”