BFL has failed, what will happen to the ruble

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The ruble on Wednesday continued to gradually weaken. On the one hand, there is the oil factor – the price of black gold falling, investors calmed down. On the other bidders clearly concerned about the return of American congressmen from vacation, as it is likely that one of the first questions which they will be engaged, will be the aspect of tightening sanctions on Russia. In addition, the widespread weakening of quotations of currencies of emerging economies does not allow the ruble to trade safely.
As a result, by mid-day, the greenback climbed to 68,36 rubles (+0.4 percent). The Euro rose 0.3% and is trading at 79,20 RUB the Bank of Russia raised the exchange rates of foreign currencies for tomorrow, 6 September. Now they are 68,46 rubles per dollar and per Euro of 79.13 RUB. Evaluation of the regulator are increased by 19 and 11 cents, respectively.
Prospects scheduled for today, but never of the auction the Ministry of Finance on placement of OFZ was always going to be very vague. What could be hoped for, seeing the disastrous last auction and the apparent unwillingness of residents to buy? Most likely, next week the auction will not, the Agency will not take such a risk. The schedule of OFZ placements will directly depend on the situation. Now it is important not to have intensified capital flight from the secondary debt market, as it will hit the ruble.
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation returns to active purchases of currency. According to the Agency, in the period from 7 September to 4 October will be bought currency to 426.9 billion roubles This means that within the day the Finance Ministry will spend around RUB 21.3 billion against the previous volume of 16.7 billion rubles. apparently, there is an active “preparation” of foreign currency reserves with the expectation of further spending under the President’s projects and orders. For the ruble it is a usual bidding conditions, so any particularly pronounced exchange rate fluctuations against this background, should not wait.
Today commodity market is trading in the “red” zone. A barrel of Brent falls by 1% and costs $77,40, the barrel of WTI is losing 1.3% and is trading at $68.99, losing. On the one hand, information about the fresh start of hurricane season, investors have already received and reflected in the price. On the other – the intention of Saudi Arabia to keep oil prices between $70-80 per barrel, according to Reuters, not so expensive, because the market itself is able to oscillate in this framework, given the enormous amount of mixed catalysts.
The dollar closed today in the range 68,10-68,55, the Euro and go into a new session within 78,90-79,35 RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari