A weak dollar will not help the ruble to keep from falling
In comparison with the scale of the collapse of oil, the weakening of the Russian currency looks quite modest. But this does not mean that the ruble is not threatened by a more aggressive devaluation, which will happen if Brent will develop a decline beneath key level of $50 per barrel.
At the moment we can identify several reasons why “Russian” shows a more restrained growth in response to bearish signals from oil market. Locally this tax period, which traditionally softens the fall of the ruble in challenging periods and provides additional support during periods of growth.
Also, there is the dollar factor U.S. currency is exposed to sale in the Forex market because of the aggression of the trump and the collapse of stock markets. By reducing the attractiveness of USD, which recedes with an eye on a decrease in the yield of treasuries, our currency can partially absorb the oil film.
However, there’s certainly not enough to completely disengage from the commodity factor, so long as Brent is in line with the bearish trend and is threatening new lows, the “wood” will remain vulnerable to bearish risks, and attractiveness leaves much to be desired, especially against the background of continuing sanctions history in the face of slowing world economy.
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