A strong ruble and falling oil prices, the main question for investors

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Russian stock market ends the trading day mixed. Index Mosberg kept in a symbolic positive territory and is about 2395 points, which retains the rouble indicator of the chances of the slide to 2375 points on. The RTS index looks sluggish and konsolidiruyutsya within 1110-1120 points. In this framework will begin trading mid-week.
Oil stays the evening in a deep red. A barrel of Brent crude is reduced by 2% and is trading at $68,59. Despite the fact that right now the US dollar slightly adjusted, the total pressure in the oil was still quite pronounced. In such circumstances, the passage in the direction of $65 per barrel of Brent appears increasingly possible.
The ruble is stable. Every day we speak on the strength of the Russian currency, but in fact it’s just the lack of movement. It, in turn, can be explained as minimum market liquidity and the expectation of investors to new information. From the Ministry of Finance, for example. The decision is curious for tomorrow is planned to place two OFZ 5 billion rubles each. It was assumed that if the allocation limit will be 10-15 billion rubles., that is to point out the problems of the Ministry of Finance and wish to attract money at any price. Now, however, it is evident that the Ministry of Finance took into account the interests of the market and goes to the auction with the most interest to investors proposals. In such circumstances, there is a chance to accommodate in full.
This month on the factor of the taxation period I would expect, especially if the US by the end of the month still doing what it has long wanted – a revision of the schemes of anti-Russian sanctions. Therefore, the situation in the pair dollar/ruble may be next: soon tool konsolidiruyutsya within 67,50-68,50 RUB, and RUB over 68,00 it can be fixed without much trouble and occasions. And then, towards the end of the month, the dollar can go to 69 and RUB it should be understood that even if the sanctions will be announced and they will be tough, above 80,0 RUB the dollar is unlikely to break and then locally.
Session Tuesday for the dollar rose about 67,75 RUB, the auction environment will start in the range 67,60-by Gucci 67,95. Euro/ruble stabiliziruemost in the hallway 76,10-76,65.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari