60 dollar RUB: myth or reality?

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Russian ruble on Monday continued strengthening to a basket of currencies. A powerful catalyst for him right now is the oil, where in the beginning of the week turned a full-fledged rally. The us dollar to date, trading at RUB 65,92 (-0,7%). The Euro declining 0.6% and is estimated at 77, and 54 RUB
Courses of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Tuesday, September 25, lowered and be 66,15 RUB per US dollar (-9 cents) and RUB over the 77,68 € (-39 cents).
The commodity market continues to update the highs. The more expensive a barrel of Brent by mid-day on 2,4% and costs $80,69, investors are waiting for decisions of OPEC+ to increase oil production. An additional factor, allowing the bulls to climb on, is geopolitics.
Will the 60 dollar RUB? There is a chance, but it is very small. First, because oil is unlikely to stay above $80 per barrel Brent for a long time. It has positions of the Republican party. Ahead of the elections to the Congress it is unpleasant, though interesting to kancevica. Second, in October will be the same period when the States must either fully tighten the screws in the issue of anti-Russian sanctions, or to take back. It’s a big risk for the ruble, because the outcome of this initiative is clear.
In addition, the fourth quarter is the time of payments of external debt, and by December will be the peak of these repayments. They are in foreign currency, although the Treasury has a sufficient amount of dollars purchased earlier, we cannot exclude the possibility that it may require. Dollars will also require companies that also extinguish its debts at the end of the year, and for them they will come on the market.
In the long term there are no preconditions for a strong ruble in the medium – it is possible the periods of the strengthening and the subsequent lull, which will be preceded by a new wave of strengthening of the foreign currency.
U.S. dollar finishes Monday within 65,85-66,50, the Euro closes the day within the boundaries 77-78 RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari