Today I will explain to her, in a sense, the bearish stance on bitcoin.
First, let’s define what your trading decisions primarily should be dictated by the macro cycles in the market. On a monthly timeframe you can see a huge shadow from the candles of the last cycle, which indicate the market reaching its peak. Now look at the current situation. Despite the fact that August is not over, you can see some regularity.
A bear market began in December 2017 and completed in December 2018. Six months later, the price rose to a certain local peak. Given the growing wedge on the monthly chart, coming in strong wave correction, which will take about six months. Remember that in the area of $6,000 was the most powerful protorgovki, and the price can come right back. At the moment the market shows exactly that strong sales from the top of the trend.
I know many of you are interesting this position. You no longer want to hear BTC will soar to $100,000 because of the trade wars of the United States and China. But, it will not. These events may impact on gold, given the negative interest rates and the situation on the world market, people just want to store tools where they won’t have to pay.
Returning to bitcoin, I think that the price will be slowly sliding to $6,000 for a few (5-7) months, which aims at local low at the beginning of 2020. It’s a good level for investors, especially given the potential drawdown of the lower support, which can last a few days and give a great opportunity to open a position.
Then it is logical to expect some rebound and decline within the next six months. Most likely, the next wave of growth starting in mid-2020. Thus, it is possible momentum from July 2020 until the beginning of 2021 that could raise the price to $27,500.
In the shorter term, we should not seek to short BTC. He’s already greatly subsided, and, most likely, will form a local bottom. Nothing on the market is not falling one candle. Likely to rebound to ~$11,000 will come from the ~$10,000 where it makes sense to look for an entry point into a short position.
As for domination BTC, let’s take a look at CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin lost less than altcoins. I have said many times: shortite XRP to BTC and ETH, just kick the crap out of these useless coins. On a larger timeframe we still see the bullish trend domination, so nothing has changed.