Today we will hold a mid-term analysis of the bitcoin prices. Consider the opposition of the most talked about bullish scenario against the discussion of the bear. Also, the analysis can see BTC sold and capitalization.
Now on the market, almost nothing happens, there was a lull before the storm. Nobody knows how the situation will develop, and bored people start to come up with a variety of strange theories. It seems to me that the community as a whole leans toward a higher probability of bullish scenario, despite the strong bias indicator “fear/greed” in the direction of fear.
For several weeks I’m talking about the bullish flag. After the rebound from the descending resistance line, the pattern is evolving towards further growth. Most likely, the price I’m not going to retest the lower boundary of the channel, so now that BTC is holding above $10,000, where we also observed a strong protorgovki based on the volume profile. The struggle for the psychological level of 5-digit rates continues.
The most popular bullish scenario today it is a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. Price konsolidiruyutsya on falling volumes. If this pattern is played, it is possible that in September the price will come out of this triangle, most likely up. I would not be surprised if the price will go to retest the ATH, as a minimum, I expect $17,000. Now all of the indicators fell in the area from which it is logical to assume further growth, especially given the fact that we are in bullish trend from the bottom.
With regard to the seasonality of markets and the fact that most now comes the end of vacations and a return to investment activity, it seems to me that these factors do not have a strong influence, given the historical response of prices at different periods such as Chinese New Year.
Now to the bearish scenario, which represents the analysis of fractals (price history) on the higher timeframe. Just note that in my understanding fractal analysis is even more subjective than patterns. If we project the movement of prices in the fall of 2018 at the current schedule, we will see that BTC could drop to ~$6,500. If we talk about lower levels, I consider them very unlikely.
In favor of reducing could also say the news of the recent transaction 50 million BTC on BitMEX. This caused a wave of speculation, but the exchange itself has nothing to do with pricing. Manipulation of the price of bitcoin on BitMEX is simply impossible, as this derivatives. It’s funny that this amount had open shorts, which were then eliminated, my condolences.
It is noteworthy that the hash rate of bitcoin continues to grow in anticipation of halving, which greatly enhances network security. It can serve as a catalyst for the growth rates to halving, and in may 2020 we will see massive sales.
Implemented capitalization of bitcoin, which reflects the share price by the number of traded coins is also found on ATN. If someone believes that Bitcoin does not contain any value and not doing good, then I have bad news.