Today we will discuss a very important and popular questions: “can Bitcoin update its peak value?” and ” if Yes, when will it happen?”.
The market is full of people with opposite points of view. Some are pessimistic and believe that Bitcoin will never return to its previous high price values, moreover, they believe that ultimately, Bitcoin is completely worthless. Others see the market directly opposite, and believe the rapid growth to $100 000, or even $1 000 000.
Well, each of us has their own opinion, but more important than the opinion of the market. To understand this, we must turn to technical analysis. Let’s consider the chart of the XHB — ETF builders of homes in the United States.
As we know, the us real estate market collapsed in 2008. If any of you watched the movie “shorting”, then you know that some market participants knew about the collapse before it happened. That’s why they bet against the real estate market since 2006, which is evident from the graph. This is why that’s so important, it gives us more advanced ideas and hints about possible events in the future. Now let’s go back to the chart of Bitcoin from 2013 to 2017.
On the chart we see that after the market crash in 2013-2014, the bottom was reached in January 2015, after which the market recovered to previous values. The whole process took 3.25 years. Also, I would like to note that the bullish rally began after price failed to hold above the moving average 21 a week, so we can conclude that it is a good indicator for a reversal in the market. Now to the fact that shows us the current period.
Here I is schematically depicted an idealistic view on the development of the Bitcoin prices. If the price will develop in a similar way with the previous cycle, we can assume that the price will update its peak in about the same period of time, namely to 2021. The green line shows the bottom of $3 100 — $3 000, if the situation goes this way, it is fair to wait for a new rally in early 2021. The purple line indicates a further decline in prices up to $2 000 or below, then the bottom will be reached. In any case, I believe that the market will form a bottom in the middle, or second half of 2019. However, if price can close above the moving average 21 a week, then it is logical to expect the update peak value by mid-2021.