Today will be a small update about the prices of Bitcoin and what we are shown graphics. In addition, we explain Elliot waves and how they apply to the current price.
The last time we discussed a possible price drop, I said 2 goals based on the method of symmetric projections. The first goal was for $4 485, and the second at ~$3 500. Thus, the price already reached the first goal, to be honest, I was surprised by the similar speed of its movement.
In the moment, when the price was ~$5 500, some were convinced that this kind of an opportunity to move against the masses and should be adjusted according to bullish. I’d like to note that in order to swim against the current, there is a right and not a good time, and it is very important to understand the difference between them, because the movement against the market at the wrong time can lead to dire consequences. In the first place, I was sure that the moment to play against the market were not suitable for indicator pulses.
When I saw the color change of the indicator and its fall, it was the signal for switching into a bear regime, as the main rule in the market is “don’t try to fight the impulse”. This is one of the most dangerous practices in trading as a probability in these moments playing against you. Moreover, as I already mentioned, the structure of the market was broken, as I said earlier, it is also a sign of changing dynamics in the market.
It should be noted that the RSI is now in the range of 35-30,70, I use very conservative settings in which the indicator falls rarely.
Last time this happened in January 2015 when the price of Bitcoin has fallen dramatically, and then rebounded rapidly, what I don’t expect this time.
Now with short positions should be cautious as the RSI indicates some possible bounce up.
Let’s talk about the Elliott wave theory. According to her, the 5th wave, most likely, was completed in late 2017, followed by correction of the classical 5 stages, while now the market is at the beginning of the 3rd wave.
This is important, because this wave is considered the strongest and most dynamic in the whole trend, to deal with it is incredibly dangerous, in a downtrend the price may very well go down. After the 3rd wave, we should expect a strong corrective 4th wave and the next descending 5th.
Given that we are only at the beginning of the 3rd wave, I expect an even stronger fall in the price of BTC over the next few months.
Returning to a possible rebound in the RSI, we should remember that the price correction in the 3rd wave is very small, this is its distinctive characteristic. So if you were waiting for a bounce to $5 000 — $6 000, I have some disappointing news. From my point of view, we will see some slight rebound from the current zone, or closer to $4 000, followed by a further decline in the continuation of the 3rd wave. In the end, according to the method of symmetrical projections, we are waiting for price reduction to $3,500 by the end of December, or possibly January. Of course the market could surprise us and reach your goal faster. It is best now to protect themselves from risks.